A Nio ET5 on display at the Beijing Auto Show in April 2026. Credit: CnEVPost
- William Li expects domestic retail sales in China’s auto industry to fall by 15% to 20% this year.
- He also reaffirmed expectations of Nio achieving a 40% to 50% annual sales growth this year.
William Li, founder, chairman and CEO of Nio Inc (NYSE: NIO), issued a stark warning that domestic retail sales in China’s auto industry could fall by 15% to 20% this year. At the same time, he reaffirmed expectations for the company to achieve strong growth against the broader market trend.
Speaking at the China Auto Chongqing Summit on June 13, Li painted a grim macroeconomic picture for attendees. He noted that China’s auto industry has entered the most brutal final stage of competition starting this year. The entire market is undergoing a fundamental shift from an era of incremental expansion to a saturated market driven by replacement demand.
Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, the Chinese EV maker remains highly optimistic about its own growth.
Li reaffirmed that Nio Inc expects to achieve an annual sales growth of 40% to 50% this year. This target aligns with the expectations set by the company when it reached the milestone of its one millionth production vehicle rolling off the assembly line in January this year.
The latest delivery data demonstrates the company’s recent strong business momentum. Between January and May this year, Nio Inc delivered a cumulative total of 150,526 new vehicles, achieving a year-on-year growth rate of 68.70%.
In terms of financial performance, the company has also reached a significant turning point. Nio Inc posted an operating profit of 1.25 billion yuan ($184.8 million) in the fourth quarter of last year. In the first quarter of this year, the company sustained its profitability, recording an operating profit of 68 million yuan.
Regarding the overall domestic market, Li pointed out that any illusions within the industry about a sales rebound should be completely shattered. In the first five months of this year, the domestic auto retail market fell by 19.5% year-on-year.
Entering June, the decline widened further, with the drop in the first few days even exceeding 22%, he noted.
Li emphasized that the auto industry is a marathon on a muddy road. During this challenging transition period, there are no miracles or shortcuts to quick victories. Companies must build solid foundational skills and carry out company-wide operational transformations centered around creating user value.
To survive and win in this brutal knockout stage, the company continues to invest heavily in core technologies.
Li highlighted that over the past 11 years, Nio’s cumulative research and development investment has exceeded 68.8 billion yuan, and its investment in infrastructure such as charging and battery swap networks has also surpassed 20 billion yuan.
Nio Inc’s multi-brand strategy is currently playing a positive role in the market. In addition to the main brand, its mass-market sub-brand Onvo and premium compact car brand Firefly are also performing well.
Firefly’s sales in the premium compact car market have exceeded the combined total of Mini and Smart, and it has essentially been the sales champion in this segment since its launch, Li said.
From the start of deliveries last April to today, Firefly has consistently been in a state where demand slightly outpaces supply. If customers order a Firefly now, they will still have to wait a bit for delivery, he said.
Furthermore, the company’s flagship ES8 model has been the sales champion in the large SUV segment for six consecutive months. The Onvo brand’s L90 and L60 models have also garnered strong market demand, and these product lines are helping the company rapidly expand its overall market share.
Li also highlighted the accelerating upward trend in the penetration rate of the pure electric market. In May this year, China’s NEV penetration rate reached 62.9%. Among them, the penetration rate of pure electric models in the overall powertrain market has climbed to 42.2%.
China Passenger NEV Penetration at Retail 2024-2026
Month
2024
2025
2026
January
32.8%
41.5%
38.6%
February
35.8%
49.5%
44.9%
March
41.6%
51.1%
51.5%
April
43.7%
51.5%
61.4%
May
47%
52.9%
62.9%
June
48.4%
53.3%
July
51.1%
54%
August
53.9%
55.2%
September
53.3%
57.8%
October
52.9%
57.2%
November
52.3%
59.3%
December
49.4%
59.1%
China passenger NEV penetration at retail
2024
2025
2026
He believes this trend of transitioning to pure electric vehicles is irreversible. With the rapid popularization of charging and battery swap infrastructure, the experiential benefits of pure electric models are significantly improving.
Tesla’s retail sales in China rebounded sharply to 47,281 units in May, returning to the top 10 NEV list and entering the top 10 in the overall passenger car market.
($1 = 6.7634 yuan)
