To car enthusiasts, the words “market share” might mean nothing when compared to “turbocharged” or “wide-open throttle” or “zero to 60.” But the truth is, every automaker wants to outsell their rivals because it keeps dealers and shareholders happy, can mean better profitability, keeps assembly plants humming, and signals strong brand loyalty among customers. Selling more cars than your competitors means growing market share, and it’s a fierce battle in the US to gain just a few tenths of a point from year to year.
2027 Ford Bronco Filson First Edition from the rearFord
So, as 2026 sales numbers are studied by Cox Automotive analysts as the first half of the year closes next week, there are some significant market swings on the part of certain automakers. To be blunt, these changes could result in nothing short of a tectonic shift among the top four automakers, based on US sales volume, by year’s end.
To give this some context, back in 2007, Toyota passed Ford to become the No.2 automaker in the US and hasn’t trailed Ford since then. In 2021, Toyota even outsold General Motors, knocking the General out of the No.1 position for the first time since 1931. GM came back, but it could lose its top spot again. Moreover, Ford could fall even further. And the company gunning for Ford’s spot might shock you.
Q2 2026 automotive sales trends as tracked by Cox AutomotiveCox Automotive
Hyundai Is 73,000 Sales From Beating Ford
While Toyota once again threatens to outsell GM in 2026, an even bigger surprise lurks in Cox’s first-half data sheet: Hyundai Motor Group, the South Korean conglomerate that has made big strides in product quality over the past 25 years. The company is within 73,000 vehicle sales of surpassing Ford for third spot.
In short, Hyundai is gaining share while Ford is losing it. The numbers tell the tale: Cox estimates Hyundai will sell 920,873 vehicles through the first half (representing 3.1% growth over first-half 2025), while Ford sales are pegged at 993,852 (representing a sizable 10.3% dip from first-quarter 2025).
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How do these sales swings impact first-half market share? Cox says Ford loses 1 full point, to 12.6% market share, while Hyundai reaches 11.7% share, a gain of 0.7%. The gap is indeed closing.
Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist for Cox Automotive, said Hyundai Motor Group’s three automotive brands, Hyundai, Kia, and Genesis, have done well in the first half, while Ford is having a challenging year.
2026 Hyundai Santa Fe SEL front 3/4 angle configurator view in redHyundai
“If we look a year from now, if these rates continue, Hyundai could potentially overtake Ford as the number three manufacturer here in the US market.”
–Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough
Ford: Kia Sales Should Be Separate
CarBuzz reached out to Ford for comment about the latest market share swings. A company spokesperson said via email that the Hyundai Motor Group’s sales figure “isn’t really accurate” because it includes Kia sales along with those from the Genesis and Hyundai brands. Kia reports their sales separately, so they shouldn’t be included with the Hyundai group total, Deep said. Ford and Lincoln sales, however, are grouped together.
2026 Ford Mustang Dark Horse SC top quarterFord
“Kia is a publicly traded company and it has its own board, CEO, finances, and reporting. Legally and organizationally, they are not the same company.”
Hyundai Motor Group acquired a controlling stake in Kia in 1998 and continues to oversee the Korean automotive brand. As a result, Cox bundles Kia, Hyundai, and Genesis brand sales under the Hyundai Motor Group umbrella, the same as it does for Ford and Lincoln, and for GM’s four separate brands.
Kia K4 Hatchback shooting brake stylingKia
“The two companies are closely linked, with Hyundai owning a large share of Kia, and they share some vehicle platforms,” Chesbrough told CarBuzz via email. “We include Genesis brand with Hyundai/Kia numbers, too.”
CarBuzz Insight – Why This Matters:
Over the next six months, both Ford and Hyundai have an opportunity to grow sales, and fresh product in the showroom is a strong indicator of which automaker will end the year at No.3 in the US. For Hyundai Motor Group, that means the all-new Hyundai Palisade and all-electric Ioniq 9, the Genesis GV90 electric SUV and GV80 hybrid SUV, and the Kia Carnival hybrid minivan and subcompact K4 and K4 hatchback.
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How Hyundai Is Quietly Snapping Up Domestic Buyers At An Alarming Rate
Hyundai is quietly conquering American car buyers with better value, reliability, and tech than Detroit’s Big Three can offer.
Ford has continued updating its Super Duty and F-150 pickup trucks, and supply issues hampering F-Series production are finally over. Explorer, Bronco, and Bronco Sport are strong, while there are lots of new Mustang variants to keep the pony car on the minds of muscle car shoppers. Lincoln is relying on enhancements such as the BlueCruise 1.5 hands-free driving tech. It’s a mad dash to Dec. 31, and every sale counts.
Source: Cox Automotive
