Photo: Stafford County Public Schools
If small-scale solar is included, newly released US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data reviewed by the SUN DAY Campaign indicates that renewables are on track to surpass natural gas in total electrical generating capacity by early 2027.
Electrical generation by renewables grew over 11%
According to the EIA’s latest “Electric Power Monthly” report (with data through March 31, 2026), electricity generated by renewables during Q1 2026 was up 11.1% over Q1 2025. The growth was led by utility-scale solar (+23.9%), hydropower (+21.9%), small-scale solar (<1 MW) (+11.9%), and wind (+2.1%).
Utility-scale battery energy storage capacity increased by 8.5%.
Meanwhile, the electrical output of US coal plants fell by 11.4%, while natural gas and nuclear both experienced weak growth of 1.1% and 0.9%, respectively.
The mix of all renewables, including biomass and geothermal, accounted for over 28.6% of total US electrical generation during Q1 2026.
The combination of wind and solar, including small-scale solar, accounted for 20.3% of domestic electrical production. They out-produced nuclear power by 14.3% and coal by 31.1%.
Renewable energy to add 57+ GW in 2026
As of April 1, 2026, renewable energy’s share of total US utility-scale (>1 MW) generating capacity was 33.6%. EIA projects this to grow to 36.6% by March 31, 2027. Utility-scale solar will add 42,626.1 MW, expanding its share from 12.8% to 15.7%, while wind will grow by 14,157.4 MW (including 4,155.0 MW of offshore wind), increasing from 13.0% to 13.6%. The mix of other renewables (hydropower, biomass, and geothermal) will add 297.1 MW.
The combined capacity growth of all utility-scale renewable energy sources over the 12-month period (57,080.6 MW) is almost double that of the previous 12 months (30,843.5 MW) – an increase of 85.1%.
Meanwhile, EIA projects no new nuclear generating capacity and a net decline of 4,266.2 MW in fossil fuel capacity.
Renewables’ capacity will surpass natural gas’s by 2027
The “Electric Power Monthly” report does not include small-scale solar. The capacity of small-scale solar systems grew by 6,358.2 MW in 2025, bringing its total to 60,978.4 MW. EIA does not provide a forecast for small-scale solar, but the SUN DAY Campaign assumes it will roughly equal last year’s level (i.e., an additional 6,000 MW or more).
If small-scale solar adds approximately 6,000 MW by April 1, 2027, it will bring renewable energy’s installed capacity to about 533,319.7 MW. By comparison, natural gas’s generating capacity would total 514,868.4 MW.
Solar power’s share alone will be 19.9% of total US capacity.
Battery storage capacity to increase 50%+
Battery storage increased by 17,301.8 MW in the past 12 months, and EIA foresees another 23,523.8 MW added by April 1, 2027, bringing the total to 69,971.1 MW – a rise of over 50%.
Together, utility-scale renewable energy and battery storage will provide 80,604.4 MW of new clean energy capacity by early spring 2027. With the inclusion of small-scale solar, that figure could rise to close to 87,000 MW.
EIA forecasts continued solar, wind, battery growth
In its latest “Short-Term Energy Outlook” report, EIA forecasts installed utility-scale solar capacity to rise 43.3% from 150 gigawatts (GW) at the end of 2025 to 215 GW by the end of 2027. Actual electrical generation would increase by a comparable amount (41.6%), expanding from 0.293 billion kilowatt-hours (BkWh) to 0.415 BkWh.
Similarly, wind capacity would grow 12.6% from 159 GW to 179 GW while generation would increase by 12.5% from 0.464 BkWh to 0.522 BkWh.
The capacity of battery storage was 42 GW at the end of 2025 and is expected to double and reach 85 GW by the end of 2027.
“The Trump Administration has now passed the one-third mark and largely failed to stop the clean energy transition,” noted the SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director, Ken Bossong. “By a wide margin, renewables and battery storage will continue to dominate new growth in electrical capacity and generation.”
Read more: EIA: 80 GW of new solar, wind + storage capacity coming in 2026
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