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There are about 500 million connected cars on the road around the world right now, and that number is expected to more than double by 2035. Once we get to the next decade, a huge chunk of them will be on borrowed time, because carriers are expected to start decommissioning 4G LTE networks as early as 2030.
A recent study tracking the pervasiveness of connected cars caught our eye and made us think of the 2022 3G shutdown that killed connected features for millions of cars. We’ll be going through the same kind of phenomenon in the near future, except next time, it’ll affect far more cars, connected services, and consumers.
Many modern cars depend on some level of network connectivity for diagnostics, tracking, remote services, infotainment features, and other things. But unlike mechanical functions that either work or don’t, software-based functions can be rendered useless, even if they work perfectly, once they can’t connect to the network they rely on.
“As the industry advances toward software-defined vehicles—and increasingly explores what AI-defined vehicles might look like—it has rightly embraced foundational enablers such as eSIM and hybrid terrestrial/non terrestrial (TN/NTN) connectivity,” Omdia principal IoT analyst John Canali said in a press release. “However, progress on 5G adoption has been slow. With mobile network operators beginning to decommission LTE from 2030, automakers face a worst-case scenario: vehicles that depend on connectivity but cannot attach to a viable network.”
2030 sounds like the distant future, but it’s really not—especially in terms of product development. Every OEM is actively working on 2030 model year cars right now; I can promise you that. If product planners start thinking about this inevitable network changeover now, maybe it won’t be an issue for as many cars by the time it happens.
So, what can be done? I wonder if a consortium of OEMs and infrastructure companies could come together to create some kind of partitioned “network classic” environment for 4G cars and services to keep operating in peace into the next decade. If not, used cars made in the last 10 years or so could lose a lot of functionality, be annoying to use, and be really hard to resell.
The problem goes deeper than software. A car with a 4G modem physically can’t connect to a 5G-only network, and firmware can’t turn a 4G radio into a 5G one. Once the network moves on, the hardware simply gets left behind.
I feel like we’re heading toward an automotive future where you’ll either drive an ancient “off-grid” car or lease something brand-new. Assuming society as we know it survives long enough to have a few more generations of wireless network protocols, of course. And by “ancient” I don’t even mean carbureted—just something from the early days of traction control, when most automotive systems were self-contained—circa Y2K. (Early OnStar cars excepted. Their service already went dark in the 2008 analog shutdown.) That’s when cars peaked anyway, as far as I’m concerned.
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Automotive journalist since 2013, Andrew primarily coordinates features, sponsored content, and multi-departmental initiatives at The Drive.
