The Canadian automotive sector is facing a mix of global and domestic pressures that are reshaping investment decisions, product planning and long‑term growth expectations, according to an industry observer.
At the recent AIA Canada National Conference, Ryan Robinson, automotive research leader at Deloitte, said tariffs remain a major source of instability for the industry. He described the past year as only a preview of what may come next as negotiations continue around the CUSMA trade agreement.
“We think that the tariffs that we’ve been living through in the last 12 months is still a bit of an appetizer,” he said.
Companies are waiting for clarity on trade policy before making major commitments, Robinson observed. “We are in a situation of investment paralysis at the moment.”
Businesses are also dealing with uncertainty tied to U.S. reshoring efforts and geopolitical tensions surrounding rare earth minerals. He noted that China maintains significant influence over the processing of these materials, which remain crucial to electric vehicle components.
“That is something that we still obviously need to keep,” he said.
Regulatory divergence between Canada and the United States is another emerging pressure point. Robinson pointed to changes underway in the U.S., including adjustments to emissions standards and enforcement, which he described as “a tectonic shift.” He said those changes are already affecting how automakers approach product strategies for the North American market.
“It’s having a direct impact on how automakers are seeing their product planning and product strategies going forward,” he said.
Robinson also highlighted rapid technological change, particularly the rise of software‑defined vehicles and new mobility technologies. He said these developments affect every stage of the automotive value chain, including how vehicles are designed, built, serviced and used.
“Software defined vehicles is one of those macro trends that’s having an impact on the entire spectrum,” he said.
Economic pressures are also weighing on Canadian consumers. Robinson cited data showing widespread concern about savings, revolving credit and vehicle affordability. Those conditions, he said, are influencing purchase timing and mobility choices, adding further complexity to the market outlook. As these forces converge, Robinson said companies across the sector are reassessing growth expectations and looking for stability in an environment that remains unpredictable.
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