Apple’s first foldable iPhone may have a repeat of the iPhone X moment this fall. A new report from industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo suggests that the rumored iPhone Ultra (foldable iPhone) could be announced alongside the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max, but preorders and sales may arrive later because early production is expected to be extremely limited.
Kuo says Apple may build around 7 million to 8 million foldable iPhones in the second half of 2026. The problem is timing. Only 0.5 million to 1 million units are expected to be ready in the third quarter, which is when Apple usually prepares for its September iPhone launch. The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, by comparison, are expected to have around 20 million to 22 million units ready in the same period.
Apple may repeat the iPhone X playbook
Apple users who have followed the brand for a while now may find this situation familiar. Apple announced the iPhone X alongside the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus in September 2017, but preorders did not open until late October, and sales began in November. Early production was limited because the iPhone X introduced major hardware changes, including an OLED all-screen design, Face ID, and the TrueDepth camera system.
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The foldable iPhone may face a similar situation. Previous reports have pointed to hinge-related production challenges, although more recent reports suggested Apple had worked through many of those issues. Even so, Kuo’s latest shipment estimates suggest Apple may not have enough units ready for a full September retail launch.
Launch supply could be brutal
The foldable iPhone is expected to be expensive, with Kuo pointing to a price of around $2,300 to $2,500. That may not stop early demand. He says the device could sell out quickly after preorders open, with delivery estimates stretching to 4 to 6 weeks or longer through December.
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Apple also appears confident that demand will last beyond the first model. Bloomberg previously reported that the company is already planning a second-generation foldable iPhone for 2027, just one year after the original is expected to arrive. Scarcity could still create a resale problem in the short term. A limited first batch, a new foldable design, and strong launch hype may allow scalpers to charge heavy premiums.
