William Li, founder, chairman, and CEO of Nio, spoke at the Nio Partner Day on June 26, 2026. Credit: Nio
- Nio founder William Li expects BEV models to make up over 90% of China’s NEV market by 2030.
- China’s NEV retail penetration hit a record 62.9% in May, with BEV models contributing 67.1% of NEV sales.
William Li, the founder, chairman and CEO of Nio Inc (NYSE: NIO), believes new energy vehicle (NEV) penetration in China’s new-car market will exceed 90% by 2030.
Li made the assessment on Friday at the 2026 Nio Partner Day, saying that pure-electric models will also account for more than 90% of the NEV market by then, according to a Weibo post by Ma Lin, the company’s vice president of brand and communications.
This is based on factors including rapid changes in the energy structure over the past two years, rapid growth in the number of charging and battery swap infrastructure, and rapid advancements in full-stack technology for pure-electric vehicles, Ma said.
The forecast paints a picture of full electrification across China’s auto market and underscores the dominance of the pure-electric route.
China’s current penetration levels already lend support to that goal. NEV retail penetration reached a record high of 62.9% in May, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).
China Passenger NEV Penetration at Retail 2024-2026
Month
2024
2025
2026
January
32.8%
41.5%
38.6%
February
35.8%
49.5%
44.9%
March
41.6%
51.1%
51.5%
April
43.7%
51.5%
61.4%
May
47%
52.9%
62.9%
June
48.4%
53.3%
July
51.1%
54%
August
53.9%
55.2%
September
53.3%
57.8%
October
52.9%
57.2%
November
52.3%
59.3%
December
49.4%
59.1%
China passenger NEV penetration at retail
2024
2025
2026
Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) made up 67.1% of NEV retail sales, signaling that consumers are accelerating their shift toward pure-electric models.
Li’s optimism aligns with Nio’s own strategic positioning. The company is one of the few Chinese automakers that produce only BEV models.
The broader industry, however, still faces near-term pressure. NEV retail sales totaled 950,000 units in May, down 7.5% year-on-year, CPCA data showed.
That marked the fifth consecutive monthly year-on-year decline in China’s NEV retail sales, reflecting weak overall demand in the car market.
The elevated penetration rate stems mainly from the accelerating contraction of the traditional fuel-vehicle market. Retail sales of conventional fuel passenger cars plunged 39% year-on-year in May.
Against this backdrop, Nio’s deliveries have remained strong. The company delivered 37,705 units in May, a record monthly high for the year.
Nio Inc delivered 150,526 units in the January-May period, up 68.70% year-on-year, outpacing the pressured broader market.
Looking ahead to June, the CPCA expected China’s passenger NEV retail sales to be around 1.05 million units, up 10.5% from May.
NEV retail penetration in June is likely to climb to around 63.6%, setting another record, according to a CPCA report on June 18.
China’s NEV retail sales totaled 583,000 units in the first 21 days of June, down 10% year-on-year, but up 11% from the same period last month.
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