- January’s NEV penetration rate fell to 44.4%, with CPCA anticipating this will mark a cyclical low point.
- The CPCA projects China’s overall passenger vehicle retail sales for January to total about 1.8 million units, a 0.36% year-on-year increase but a 20.4% decline from December.
(A Dongfeng Nissan N7 displayed at the Shanghai auto show in April 2025. Image credit: CnEVPost)
China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) retail sales in January are estimated at about 800,000 units, contributing 44.4% to overall passenger vehicle retail sales, the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) said in a Thursday report.
This represents a 7.52% year-on-year increase but a 40.16% month-on-month decline, CnEVPost calculations show.
This performance is weak considering last year’s Chinese New Year holiday occupied four working days in late January, while this year’s holiday falls in late February.
China NEV Monthly Sales (CPCA) 2024-2026
Month
2024
2025
2026
January
673,536
744,052
800,000
February
381,626
686,000
March
718,498
991,000
April
675,484
905,000
May
796,811
1,021,000
June
856,354
1,111,000
July
881,021
987,000
August
1,024,848
1,101,000
September
1,122,467
1,296,000
October
1,195,018
1,282,000
November
1,266,990
1,321,000
December
1,302,599
1,337,000
China passenger NEV retail sales — CPCA
2024
2025
2026
*Jan 2026 figure is CPCA estimate
Source: CPCA
© CnEVPost
CPCA projects China’s overall passenger vehicle retail sales for January at about 1.8 million units, reflecting a 0.36% year-on-year increase but a 20.4% decline from December.
The latest survey results indicate that automakers accounting for nearly 80% of total market sales have set this month’s retail targets at levels equal to or slightly higher than last year’s, the CPCA said.
The continuation and optimization of automotive support policies are expected to underpin the market throughout the year. However, the market is currently navigating a critical period of policy transition and adjustment in the short term, the report noted.
Entering 2026, China’s NEV purchase tax has shifted from full exemption to half the standard rate, leading to heightened consumer wait-and-see sentiment, according to CPCA.
Additionally, cold weather in January impacted the market, with penetration rates expected to hit a cyclical low this month, the report said.
In December, China’s NEV penetration rate stood at 59.1%, slightly below November’s record high of 59.4%.
China has extended its vehicle trade-in subsidies, though the ongoing transition period continues to influence the overall market.
CPCA’s weekly data shows significant sales declines during the first and second weeks of this month, followed by gradual improvement.
The CAAM projects China’s overall passenger vehicle sales will reach 34.75 million units in 2026, representing a 1% year-on-year increase.
