Rockland Solar. Photo: Origis Energy
Including new small-scale solar, renewables’ capacity is likely to surpass natural gas by summer 2027 or sooner, according to new data just released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), and reviewed by the SUN DAY Campaign.
Renewables and battery storage are projected to add about 82.9 gigawatts (GW) of new generating capacity in the US by June 30, 2027, while total fossil fuel and nuclear power capacity will fall by almost 3.1 GW.
Electrical generation by renewables grew 11% in H1 2026
According to the EIA’s latest “Electric Power Monthly” report (with data through June 30, 2026), renewably generated electricity during the first half of 2026 was 10.9% greater than in the same period of 2025. The growth was led by utility-scale solar (up 21.6%), small-scale solar (up 13.0%), hydropower (up 10.1%), and wind (up 6.5%).
By comparison, the electrical output of the US’s nuclear power and natural gas plants grew much more slowly – by 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively. Electricity produced by US coal plants fell by 11.3%.
The combination of wind and solar, including small-scale solar, accounted for 22.3% of domestic electricity production. In June alone, solar-generated electricity exceeded the combined output of wind and hydropower, making it the leading renewable energy source for the month.
During the first half of 2026, wind and solar combined produced 58% more electricity than US coal plants and 28% more than nuclear.
The mix of all renewables, including biomass and geothermal, accounted for 30.2% of total US electrical generation during the first half of 2026 – up from 27.8% a year earlier.
Renewable energy capacity rose by 45,000 MW in a year
Between July 1, 2025, and June 30, 2026, the installed capacity of utility-scale solar increased by 28,076.7 MW, while that of small-scale solar and wind grew by 6,492.0 MW and 10,552.9 MW (including 800 MW of offshore wind), respectively. The combined capacity of all renewable energy sources – including hydropower, biomass, and geothermal – expanded by 44,889.3 MW.
In addition, utility-scale battery energy storage capacity increased by 17,858.8 MW.
By comparison, coal capacity fell by 3,993.6 MW, while nuclear capacity dropped by 28.2 MW. However, natural gas capacity rose by 7,529.8 MW.
Over the past decade, renewable capacity has doubled
As of mid-year, renewable energy’s share of US electrical generation is nearly double that of a decade ago: 30.2% in 2026 vs. 16.9% at the end of June 2016. Solar then accounted for 1.3% of the total, while wind accounted for another 6.0%.
Five years later, renewables’ share of total electrical production had risen to 22.4%. Solar’s share had increased to 4.1% while wind had risen to 9.6%.
The growth of solar and wind-generated electricity over the past decade was made possible by the expanding generating capacity of both sources.
Since mid-year 2016, installed solar capacity has increased more than ninefold, with utility-scale capacity over 11 times greater and small-scale systems up more than sixfold.
In just the past five years, the combined capacity of utility-scale and small-scale solar has almost tripled (up 274%).
Meanwhile, over the last five years, wind energy generating capacity has increased by nearly a third (32.7%). During the past decade, it more than doubled.
Moreover, installed utility-scale battery energy storage systems went from being too little for EIA to even report in 2016 to 2,651.5 MW by mid-2021 to 51,665.7 MW at the end of June 2026 – a nearly 20-fold increase in five years.
Utility-scale renewables to add 54 GW of new capacity
The rapid growth of renewables over the past 10 years is projected to continue in the coming year.
As of June 30, 2026, renewable energy’s share of total US utility-scale generating capacity was 34.3%. EIA projects this to grow to 37.1% by June 30, 2027. Utility-scale solar will add 43,649.2 MW, expanding its share from 13.3% to 16.2%, while wind will grow by 10,216.8 MW (including 4,165.0 MW of offshore wind), increasing from 13.4% to 13.6%. The mix of other renewables (i.e., hydropower, biomass, and geothermal) will add 259.7 MW.
The combined net capacity growth of all utility-scale renewable energy sources for the 12-month period (54,125.7 MW) is 41% more than that added during the previous 12 months (38,397.3 MW).
Meanwhile, EIA projects no new nuclear generating capacity and a net decline of 3,143.4 MW in fossil fuel capacity.
With the inclusion of new small-scale solar, renewables’ capacity is likely to surpass natural gas by summer 2027 or sooner.
The figures above do not include small-scale solar. The estimated capacity of small-scale solar systems grew by 6,492.0 MW during the last year, bringing its total to 62,364.7 MW. EIA does not provide a forecast for the next 12 months of small-scale solar capacity growth, but the SUN DAY Campaign assumes it will roughly equal the 6,400 MW added on average each of the past five years. Therefore, it is conservatively assumed that an additional 6,000 MW or more will come online in the coming year.
If small-scale solar increases by approximately 6,000 MW by July 1, 2027, it will bring renewable energy’s installed capacity to about 546,219.4 MW. By comparison, natural gas’ generating capacity would total 518,286.3 MW.
Solar power’s share alone would be more than 20.4% of total US generating capacity.
Battery storage to increase by 44% by next July
EIA projects battery energy storage will add another 22,788.4 MW by July 1, 2027, an increase of over 44%, bringing the total to 74,454.1 MW.
Thus, the combination of utility-scale renewable energy sources and battery energy storage will provide 76,914.1 MW of new clean energy capacity by early summer 2027. With the inclusion of small-scale solar, that figure could rise to or surpass 83,000 MW.
“Renewable energy, led by solar and wind, has been setting growth records for at least the past decade,” noted the SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director, Ken Bossong. “And, notwithstanding the roadblocks set up by the Trump administration, all signs indicate that its growth is poised to expand even faster in the coming year.”
Read more: Solar generated more electricity than coal and wind in May – EIA data
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