He Xiaopeng, chairman and CEO of Xpeng, introduced the Mona L03 SUV in Beijing on July 2, 2026. Credit: Xpeng
- Xpeng chairman He Xiaopeng expects China’s NEV penetration to exceed 90% by 2030.
- The view aligns with a forecast from Nio founder William Li, underscoring the industry’s consensus on full electrification.
Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) chairman and CEO He Xiaopeng said the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEV) in China’s new-car market will surpass 90% by 2030.
He made the remarks while speaking with media after the China debut of the Xpeng Mona L03 SUV (sport utility vehicle) last night, according to a July 2 report by local media outlet Sina Tech.
The view is consistent with that of Nio Inc (NYSE: NIO) founder, chairman and CEO William Li.
Li said at the 2026 Nio Partner Day on June 26 that China’s NEV penetration will exceed 90% by 2030.
Xpeng’s Mr. He said that in 2014 and 2015, almost no one believed NEVs could account for close to 60% of monthly new-car sales.
He argued that the theme of the past decade was the replacement of gasoline vehicles by electric ones. In the new decade, the industry’s transformation will lie in the integration of AI and automobiles.
He expects every car in the future to be a “robot on four wheels.”
He believes the core of the automotive transformation lies in how to give cars a “soul,” and how to truly couple cars with robots so that customers can feel the value.
Li’s forecast was more specific. He said that by 2030, battery electric vehicles (BEV) will also make up more than 90% of China’s NEV market.
That would mean the pure-electric path dominates the electrification wave. The approach dovetails closely with Nio’s own strategy, as the company is one of the few Chinese automakers producing BEV models only.
Current market data lend support to the optimistic outlook. Data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) show NEV retail penetration reached a record high of 62.9% in May.
China Passenger NEV Penetration at Retail 2024-2026
Month
2024
2025
2026
January
32.8%
41.5%
38.6%
February
35.8%
49.5%
44.9%
March
41.6%
51.1%
51.5%
April
43.7%
51.5%
61.4%
May
47%
52.9%
62.9%
June
48.4%
53.3%
July
51.1%
54%
August
53.9%
55.2%
September
53.3%
57.8%
October
52.9%
57.2%
November
52.3%
59.3%
December
49.4%
59.1%
China passenger NEV penetration at retail
2024
2025
2026
BEVs accounted for 67.1% of NEV retail, indicating that consumers are tilting toward pure-electric models at an accelerating pace.
Still, the industry as a whole remains under near-term pressure. CPCA data show NEV retail sales stood at 950,000 units in May, down 7.5% from a year earlier.
That marked the fifth straight month of year-on-year decline in China’s NEV retail, reflecting soft demand across the broader auto market.
Looking ahead, the CPCA expects China’s passenger NEV retail to reach about 1.05 million units in June, up 10.5% from the prior month.
June NEV retail penetration is expected to climb to about 63.6%, setting another record, according to a CPCA report dated June 18.
Leapmotor, Nio and Xpeng each set their highest monthly delivery record so far this year in June.
